IOC, BPCL and HPCL stocks rise – FY26 earnings forecast oil sector

IOC, BPCL and HPCL stocks rise – strong earnings expected in FY26

Key points: FY26 earnings forecast oil sector

1. The stocks of all three government oil companies (IOC, BPCL, HPCL) saw a rise of about 2% today (May 14).
2. Reason: International brokerage firm JPMorgan believes that if the current situation remains, then these companies can earn 50%–80% more than their estimated profit (EBITDA) in the first half of FY 2025-26.
3. Refining margins strong: Diesel and jet fuel are getting better margins.

Although inventory loss (loss due to reduction in stock) in Q1 may have a slight impact, but the profit from refining will completely cover it.

4. JPMorgan rating update: FY26 earnings forecast oil sector

HPCL: Rating raised to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Neutral’ and target price raised to ₹463 from ₹424.

BPCL: Target raised to ₹481 from ₹417.

IOC: Target raised to ₹199 from ₹182.

5. Today’s share price movement:

IOC: ₹142.97 (+1.28%)

BPCL: ₹313.25 (+2%)

HPCL: ₹397 (+2%)

Overall:
The brokerage house is confident of the futures of these state-run oil companies, and current market conditions could give a huge boost to their earnings.

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